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[teie01032]

Hello gentlemen .
I've been trying to get something to work with BF bot for a long time, and now I might have something . still in tests .
but there is something strange about it .

I bet on UK dogs . and the daily profit seems to lessen over time .
From 18 January to 15 of march there is a decline shown in the graphic. There were no changes made to the strategy .
Any idea about what can cause this ?

[IJBets]

Couple of ideas

1) Market correcting for your edge (unlikely, but always possible)
2) Variance (I don't know your sample size, but it doesn't look that large)

So it could be you are still on the long road to getting your edge right. Keep at it.
Or your edge is good, but this is like a tiny snapshot of the results which will only show up in a years time as a tiny blip, and might look more like a plateau than a downturn.

[teie01032]

its a 3 months betting period with 0.02 stakes
I don't think this sum would affect the market . right ? I don't really understand how the market works TBH

[IJBets]

Yes, that size bet isn't going to be changing the market. On the other side it could also mean that scaling it won't work as you might not get the bets matched at an increased size.

How many bets are in that three month period? Some would say if it isn't at least 1000 it still isn't a very good amount of data to make a decision on.

And have you heard of "The Staking Machine", you can feed your results in and get all sorts of information out about edge, p value etc etc .....Nothing you can't work out yourself with a bit of Excel trickery, but certainly easier.

[teie01032]

hmm . there are around 1500 bets there . it might be possible that is just a bad time for me.
And I do use TSM mainly for checking my strike rate and how different staking plans are affected by this strike rate .
But I do like simple stakes. never found a staking plan to go well with my strats

[IJBets]

I am with you on staking plans. The only variation I ever use is percentage of betting bank (although I have used others and failed!). TSM is a great tool for the other info it gives out though. What, out of interest, is it showing for this strategy in terms of p value, edge etc? I think if those stats look good, you just need to ride it out.

Anyway, you seem to be doing the right things and considering the right information, so I think sit tight.

Maybe someone with more info will chip in.

[teie01032]

The P-Value is actually 0 . hmm . I had to look this up because I didnt know what that was
the edge is 38%

[IJBets]

Archie score?

[teie01032]

Archie score?

thats 52

[IJBets]

Well I would hold onto that strategy then!!

The numbers look good (apart from your original worry), and that is an awfully big edge to erode before it goes negative. Hopefully will settle down with a nice positive edge long term.